GOP's elusive goal: state Senate control

By Richard Locker for The Commercial Appeal
November 1, 2004

NASHVILLE -- Tennessee Republicans may be closing in on a goal that's eluded them since they re-emerged as a statewide force 40 years ago: winning control of the state Senate.

Strategists for both parties say at least two Democrats are locked in battles too close to call and another four are in competitive races where there could be upsets if President Bush's coattails whip up a GOP tidal wave in Tennessee Tuesday. Turnover of just two Democratic seats would change the 18-15 advantage they've had since 1996 into a GOP majority of 17-16.

An elected Republican majority would apparently be the first for the Tennessee Senate since Reconstruction, according to State Library & Archives researchers. Republicans held a one-vote edge in 1996, but it resulted from two members elected as Democrats switching parties in midterm, and they lacked the votes needed to reorganize the chamber and elect a speaker in the middle of a term.

A switch in party control could hold far-reaching implications for Tennesseans. Both parties expect Democrats to retain control of the House of Representatives, so neither party's legislation would get a free ride and compromises would be likely.

Republicans have not advanced a uniform or detailed legislative agenda in the campaigns, but Sen. Mark Norris, R-Collierville, said they would be expected to try to cap punitive damages in civil lawsuits and other litigation reforms, and try to restore $30 million in state funds to local governments -- seized during budget cuts -- faster than Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen has promised.

Republicans have also campaigned hard on conservative social issues.

One of them, a proposed anti-abortion constitutional amendment, passed the Senate this year with Democrats' help but was killed in the House. They have also advocated a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, already prohibited by statute.

Norris said split control of the General Assembly would give Republicans leverage to force House Democrats to allow floor votes on social and other issues previously blocked in committees. "Legislation that they (House Democratic leaders) want, we could tie up in the Senate unless they let things that our members are interested in come to a vote," Norris said.

On Friday, 20 Republican candidates for both houses announced they would push for a constitutional ban on a state income tax, but state Democratic Chairman Randy Button called that "grandstanding." Said Button: "The income tax is dead. Democrats and Republicans alike oppose it and the state Supreme Court has ruled it's unconstitutional."

Senate Democratic Leader Joe Haynes said a Republican Senate would be an obstacle for Bredesen "because I think the objective of the Republican Party would be to enhance their next gubernatorial candidate and I think in order to do that, they would have to oppose some of the governor's programs. I think there could be scalebacks potentially in education, children's programs and TennCare."

Democrats hold a 54-45 lead in the House, where it would take a five-seat turnover to give the GOP control. The closest Republicans got to that in recent history was a 49-49 split with Democrats in 1969-70, but they elected a Republican speaker when a Knoxville Democrat sided with them. The last GOP House speaker, Bill Jenkins, is now an East Tennessee congressman.

Strategists in both parties say Democrats may pick up seats in the House, where all 99 seats are up for election. The focus of attention there is whether House Speaker Jimmy Naifeh of Covington will win his tight race with Republican Jesse Cannon in Tipton and Haywood counties. If Naifeh and Democrats win, he would likely be re-elected to an eighth term as speaker.

In the Senate, only the 16 even-numbered seats are on the ballot this year. Four incumbents have no opponents, including Sen. Jim Kyle, D-Memphis.

Only six of the 12 races are competitive, all held by Democrats:

Two races in Nashville's increasingly Republican suburbs are the closest, with Sens. Jo Ann Graves, D-Gallatin, and Sen. Larry Trail, D-Murfreesboro, locked in bitter races with Republicans Diane Black and Jim Tracy, respectively.

Black is a state representative.

The other four are the race between longtime Senate Speaker John Wilder, D-Somerville, and Republican Ron Stallings of Bolivar in the counties east of Memphis; Sen. Roy Herron, D-Dresden, vs. Dennis Doster; Sen. Rosalind Kurita, D-Clarksville, vs. Brenda Radford; and Sen. Tommy Kilby, D-Wartburg, vs. Jerry Sharp.

"I understand the stars and moon have to line up for us (to win a majority), but I think we have laid the groundwork for that to happen," said Senate Republican Leader Ron Ramsey of Blountville. "I think it's so tight it will depend on turnout."

Haynes more or less agreed.

"No, I don't think it's going to happen (a GOP majority), but they see this as an opportunity, and if everything fell in their favor in the last few days in some races and everything went to heck in a handbasket on our side, it could. It's tight," he said.

A Republican majority could end Wilder's record 34-year run as Senate speaker -- if he defeats Stallings in his own Senate race.

Ramsey, who would be in line to replace him, said Thursday, "Obviously I would be interested in that but I don't like to speak in hypotheticals and we'll have to see. There are about half a dozen scenarios."

One scenario has Wilder, if he's returned to the Senate, pulling off one or two GOP votes to retain the speakership.